02-034 · EVIDENCE B · SOURCE-SENSITIVE

Drinking one or two servings of milk or yogurt daily

每天喝一两份奶或酸奶

Source cost

Only a few yuan per day, with no extra time required.

Source return

People who consume two or more servings of milk or yogurt each day have a roughly 17% lower chance of dying during the same period compared to those who do not drink any.

Evidence grade

B

THE LOW-ROI DETOURSatire, not advice

Move “Drinking one or two servings of milk or yogurt daily” to Future Me's calendar

The excuse

There is no immediate alarm, so the sensible choice can wait for a less busy week.

What feels good now

Today I keep a little money, a few minutes and avoid interrupting my default routine.

What the source says

The source summarizes the return this way: “People who consume two or more servings of milk or yogurt each day have a roughly 17% lower chance of dying during the same period compared to those who do not drink any.” Evidence grade B. The original states the population, caveats, and sources; this is not a personal forecast.

THE ENGLISH EDITION

Original recommendation and evidence

Source commit a994b6a0c905

34. Drinking one or two servings of milk or yogurt daily

Cost: Only a few yuan per day, with no extra time required.

In plain terms: People who consume two or more servings of milk or yogurt each day have a roughly 17% lower chance of dying during the same period compared to those who do not drink any.

Benefit: The PURE study followed over 136,000 participants across 21 countries for an average of 9.1 years; 6,796 of them passed away. Those who ate two or more servings of dairy products daily faced a 17% lower risk of death than non-consumers (hazard ratio 0.83, 95% CI 0.72–0.96). This trend was statistically significant (P=0.0052).

Evidence grade: B

Sources: Dehghan M, Mente A, Rangarajan S, et al. (2018). Association of dairy intake with cardiovascular disease and mortality in 21 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study. Lancet, 392(10161), 2288-2297. <https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31812-9>

Notes: A key point of debate is that PURE included many participants from low- and middle-income countries; the fact that they could afford daily dairy intake suggests better socioeconomic status, which is hard to fully rule out as a confounding factor. Additionally, people with lactose intolerance can safely switch to yogurt or low-lactose milk instead of drinking regular milk.

Read the complete Chinese source and notes

34. 每天喝一两份奶或酸奶

成本: 每天几元,不占时间。

说人话: 每天喝两份以上奶或者酸奶的人,同期死亡的概率比不喝的人低约 17%。

收益: PURE 跟踪研究覆盖 21 个国家、13.6 万人,平均跟踪 9.1 年,共 6796 人去世。每天吃两份以上奶制品的人,死亡风险比不吃的人低约 17%(风险比 0.83,95% CI 0.72–0.96,可信范围),趋势 P=0.0052

证据等级: B

来源: Dehghan M, Mente A, Rangarajan S, et al. (2018). Association of dairy intake with cardiovascular disease and mortality in 21 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study. Lancet, 392(10161), 2288-2297. <https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31812-9>

备注: 争议在于:PURE 纳入了大量中低收入国家,在那里能天天喝奶本身就说明家境不错,这层干扰很难排干净。另外乳糖不耐受的人改喝酸奶或者低乳糖奶,不必硬喝牛奶

Author's scope notes: 争议在于:PURE 纳入了大量中低收入国家,在那里能天天喝奶本身就说明家境不错,这层干扰很难排干净。另外乳糖不耐受的人改喝酸奶或者低乳糖奶,不必硬喝牛奶

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Original content by eternity4719 under CC BY 4.0. English translation is credited in the source notes. HowToLiveWorse adds a clearly labeled satirical response.

Full source and adaptation notes