03-015 · EVIDENCE B · LOW-RISK READING
Treat thoughts like “things will definitely get worse” as symptoms, not as facts
把「事情肯定会更糟」这类念头当症状看，不当事实看
No cost involved. The hard part is viewing such thoughts as symptoms rather than as objective truths.
In a 20-year twin study, each additional step up on a pessimism scale correlated with a roughly 13% higher risk of dying during that period, and a roughly 20% higher risk of dying from cardiovascular disease. Conversely, higher optimism scores did not bring any comparable benefits. Thus, the focus should be on reducing pessimism, not on simply “being more positive.”
B
Move “Treat thoughts like “things will definitely get worse” as symptoms, not as facts” to Future Me's calendar
The excuse
One more exception feels free because the bill arrives outside the current scene.
What feels good now
Today I keep a few minutes, a bit of persistence and avoid interrupting my default routine.
What the source says
The source summarizes the return this way: “In a 20-year twin study, each additional step up on a pessimism scale correlated with a roughly 13% higher risk of dying during that period, and a roughly 20% higher risk of dying from cardiovascular disease. Conversely, higher optimism scores did not bring any comparable benefits. Thus, the focus should be on reducing pessimism, not on simply “being more positive.”” Evidence grade B. The original states the population, caveats, and sources; this is not a personal forecast.
Open the original entry, check who the evidence applies to, then pick one small step that fits.
THE ENGLISH EDITION
Original recommendation and evidence
15. Treat thoughts like “things will definitely get worse” as symptoms, not as facts
Cost: No cost involved. The hard part is viewing such thoughts as symptoms rather than as objective truths.
In plain terms: In a 20-year twin study, each additional step up on a pessimism scale correlated with a roughly 13% higher risk of dying during that period, and a roughly 20% higher risk of dying from cardiovascular disease. Conversely, higher optimism scores did not bring any comparable benefits. Thus, the focus should be on reducing pessimism, not on simply “being more positive.”
Benefit: This study followed 2,978 twins aged 50 or older in Australia for an average of 20 years; 1,068 of them died over that time. For each standard deviation increase on the pessimism scale, the relative risk of death rose by about 13% (hazard ratio 1.134). The 95% confidence interval for this figure is 1.065–1.207, with a p-value of 8.85×10⁻⁵. Cardiovascular mortality rose by roughly 20% (hazard ratio 1.196; 95% CI 1.045–1.368; p=0.0093). No link was found between pessimism and cancer mortality. Similarly, higher optimism scores showed no meaningful association with mortality rates.
Evidence grade: B
Sources: Whitfield JB, Zhu G, Landers JG, Martin NG (2020). Pessimism is associated with greater all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, but optimism is not protective. Scientific Reports, 10, 12609. <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-69388-y>
Notes: This finding remains somewhat controversial. It is purely observational and no subgroups were defined. Some argue that illness might precede and cause heightened pessimism; the authors counter that if that were true, pessimism should also correlate with cancer mortality. Nevertheless, other unmeasured factors could still be at play. Importantly, optimism does not offer any protective effect, so there is no need to force oneself to “think positively.” What matters is refraining from treating pessimistic expectations as accurate forecasts of the future.
Read the complete Chinese source and notes
15. 把「事情肯定会更糟」这类念头当症状看，不当事实看
成本: 不花钱。难在把这种念头当成症状看，而不是当成事实。
说人话: 一项跟踪了 20 年的双生子研究里，悲观程度每高一个档，同期死亡的概率高约 13%，死于心血管病的概率高约 20%。反过来，乐观得分高并没有带来相应的好处。所以要处理的是悲观，不是「不够正能量」。
收益: 澳大利亚 2978 名 50 岁以上的双生子，平均跟踪 20 年，其间有 1068 人死亡。悲观量表每高 1 个标准差，同期死亡的风险高约 13%（风险比 1.134）。这个数字的可信范围是 95% CI 1.065–1.207，P=8.85×10⁻⁵。心血管死亡高约 20%（1.196，1.045–1.368，P=0.0093）。与癌症死亡无关。乐观得分与死亡率也没有明显关联。
证据等级: B
来源: Whitfield JB, Zhu G, Landers JG, Martin NG (2020). Pessimism is associated with greater all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, but optimism is not protective. Scientific Reports, 10, 12609. <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-69388-y>
备注: 争议。这只是观察，没有分组。有人会说「其实是先有病才悲观」，作者反驳说，真那样的话癌症死亡也该相关。但仍然可能有没测到的因素。乐观并没有保护作用，所以不必强迫自己「积极思考」。要做的是别把悲观预期当成对未来的准确预测。
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