05-021 · EVIDENCE B · SOURCE-SENSITIVE
Paying for gym visits individually or on short-term plans is only worthwhile if you have a consistent attendance record spanning over a year
健身房按次付费或短周期付费，除非有一年以上的稳定记录
Buying passes individually ends up costing more per visit compared to an annual membership. You’ll need to honestly estimate how many times per month you actually plan to go.
According to three years of data from U.S. gyms, members who signed contracts with monthly fees exceeding $70 attended the gym just 4.3 times per month on average, which works out to over $17 per visit. Meanwhile, a 10‑visit pass costs only $10 per visit. Collectively, these members paid roughly $600 more over their membership period. Unless you’ve already been going to the gym regularly for at least a year, buying individual passes or short‑term plans is far more economical.
B
Move “Paying for gym visits individually or on short-term plans is only worthwhile if you have a consistent attendance record spanning over a year” to Future Me's calendar
The excuse
The routine already works until the day the source says it may not.
What feels good now
Today I keep a little money, a few minutes and avoid interrupting my default routine.
What the source says
The source summarizes the return this way: “According to three years of data from U.S. gyms, members who signed contracts with monthly fees exceeding $70 attended the gym just 4.3 times per month on average, which works out to over $17 per visit. Meanwhile, a 10‑visit pass costs only $10 per visit. Collectively, these members paid roughly $600 more over their membership period. Unless you’ve already been going to the gym regularly for at least a year, buying individual passes or short‑term plans is far more economical.” Evidence grade B. The original states the population, caveats, and sources; this is not a personal forecast.
Use the original facts and limits. For an urgent medical, safety, financial, or legal issue, contact a qualified local professional or service.
THE ENGLISH EDITION
Original recommendation and evidence
21. Paying for gym visits individually or on short-term plans is only worthwhile if you have a consistent attendance record spanning over a year
Cost: Buying passes individually ends up costing more per visit compared to an annual membership. You’ll need to honestly estimate how many times per month you actually plan to go.
In plain terms: According to three years of data from U.S. gyms, members who signed contracts with monthly fees exceeding $70 attended the gym just 4.3 times per month on average, which works out to over $17 per visit. Meanwhile, a 10‑visit pass costs only $10 per visit. Collectively, these members paid roughly $600 more over their membership period. Unless you’ve already been going to the gym regularly for at least a year, buying individual passes or short‑term plans is far more economical.
Benefit: This study analyzed three years of data from 7,752 members at three U.S. fitness clubs. Members opting for monthly plans costing over $70 visited the gym just 4.3 times per month on average, resulting in a per‑visit cost exceeding $17. In contrast, a 10‑visit pass costs only $10 per visit. Over the same period, these members ended up paying an average of $600 more than they would have with a yearly membership. Additionally, the proportion of monthly‑plan members who kept their membership for over a year was 17% higher than that of annual‑plan members (based on three years of U.S. panel data).
Evidence grade: B
Sources: DellaVigna S, Malmendier U (2006). Paying Not to Go to the Gym. American Economic Review 96(3):694-719. <https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.96.3.694>
Notes: This is just one study using data from the United States. Nevertheless, its underlying principle is universally applicable: people tend to overestimate their future self‑control. If you’ve already maintained a consistent routine of going to the gym at least twice a week for a full year, then an annual membership does prove to be the cheaper option.
Read the complete Chinese source and notes
21. 健身房按次付费或短周期付费，除非有一年以上的稳定记录
成本: 按次买，单次价格比年卡摊下来贵一些。你要老实估计自己一个月到底去几次。
说人话: 美国那份三年的数据里，选月费 70 美元以上合同的会员，平均每月只去 4.3 次，折合每次超过 17 美元。而按次买 10 次卡，每次只要 10 美元。这些人在会籍期间平均多付了 600 美元。除非你已经有一年以上稳定去的记录，否则按次买或者买短期的更划算。
收益: 这项研究看的是美国 3 家健身俱乐部 7,752 名会员 3 年的数据。选月费超过 70 美元合同的会员，平均每月只去 4.3 次，折合每次超过 17 美元。而 10 次卡只要每次 10 美元。这些人在会籍期间平均多付了 600 美元。另外，月付会员超过一年还没退卡的比例，比年付会员高 17%（美国，三年面板数据）
证据等级: B
来源: DellaVigna S, Malmendier U (2006). Paying Not to Go to the Gym. American Economic Review 96(3):694-719. <https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.96.3.694>
备注: 这只是一项研究，用的是美国数据。但背后的道理很普遍：人会高估自己将来的自控力。如果你已经有连续一年、每周去两次以上的记录，那年卡确实更便宜。
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