05-028 · EVIDENCE C · SOURCE-SENSITIVE
Run a quick comparison before paying off your mortgage — don’t rely on gut feeling
提前还房贷之前先做一道比较题，不要凭感觉
No cost at all. It only takes about half an hour to do the math. You’ll need to honestly estimate the steady after‑tax return you can expect over the long run.
Paying off your mortgage is essentially the same as earning a guaranteed return equal to your mortgage rate. So the only question you need to ask is: can you reliably earn a higher after‑tax return than that rate? If the answer is yes, it makes sense to keep the money invested. If not, or if you’re unsure, paying off the loan is the better choice. With an equal principal‑and‑interest repayment plan, most of the early payments go toward interest; the earlier you pay, the more you save. Most bank apps have a “pre‑payment calculator” that gives you the exact numbers.
C
Move “Run a quick comparison before paying off your mortgage — don’t rely on gut feeling” to Future Me's calendar
The excuse
There is no immediate alarm, so the sensible choice can wait for a less busy week.
What feels good now
Today I keep a few minutes and avoid interrupting my default routine.
What the source says
The source summarizes the return this way: “Paying off your mortgage is essentially the same as earning a guaranteed return equal to your mortgage rate. So the only question you need to ask is: can you reliably earn a higher after‑tax return than that rate? If the answer is yes, it makes sense to keep the money invested. If not, or if you’re unsure, paying off the loan is the better choice. With an equal principal‑and‑interest repayment plan, most of the early payments go toward interest; the earlier you pay, the more you save. Most bank apps have a “pre‑payment calculator” that gives you the exact numbers.” Evidence grade C. The original states the population, caveats, and sources; this is not a personal forecast.
Use the original facts and limits. For an urgent medical, safety, financial, or legal issue, contact a qualified local professional or service.
THE ENGLISH EDITION
Original recommendation and evidence
28. Run a quick comparison before paying off your mortgage — don’t rely on gut feeling
Cost: No cost at all. It only takes about half an hour to do the math. You’ll need to honestly estimate the steady after‑tax return you can expect over the long run.
In plain terms: Paying off your mortgage is essentially the same as earning a guaranteed return equal to your mortgage rate. So the only question you need to ask is: can you reliably earn a higher after‑tax return than that rate? If the answer is yes, it makes sense to keep the money invested. If not, or if you’re unsure, paying off the loan is the better choice. With an equal principal‑and‑interest repayment plan, most of the early payments go toward interest; the earlier you pay, the more you save. Most bank apps have a “pre‑payment calculator” that gives you the exact numbers.
Benefit: The calculation works like this: let r be the annual mortgage rate as stated in your contract. As of 20 August 2026, the 5‑year LPR in China is 3.5%; the actual rate you pay is either higher or lower than this figure. Next, let g represent the after‑tax annual return you can expect from an alternative investment — the average percentage gain you’d earn each year by putting that money elsewhere. Paying off the mortgage guarantees you a return of exactly r; each dollar you apply to the loan earns you that rate for sure. If g consistently exceeds r, it’s better to keep the money invested. If g is lower than r, or if you can’t reliably predict it, paying off the loan locks in a risk‑free return equal to r. Again, because most of the early payments under an equal principal‑and‑interest plan cover interest, the earlier you pay, the more you save. This effect is clearly shown by the numbers produced by your bank’s pre‑payment calculator (Chinese rates as of 2026).
Evidence grade: C
Sources: The National Interbank Funding Center is authorized by the People's Bank of China (2026). Loan Prime Rate (LPR) Announcement on August 20, 2026. <https://www.chinamoney.com.cn/chinese/rdgz/20260820/3399885.html>
Notes: This section provides only the calculation method, not a definitive recommendation. It’s relatively rare for investment returns to reliably surpass mortgage rates. Regardless of which option you choose, be sure to keep enough cash on hand for emergencies. Also, check your contract for any prepayment penalties. This information is not intended as financial advice.
Read the complete Chinese source and notes
28. 提前还房贷之前先做一道比较题，不要凭感觉
成本: 不花钱。花半小时算一笔账。你要老实估计自己能拿到的、扣完税以后的稳定收益率。
说人话: 提前还房贷，等于稳稳赚到你的房贷利率。所以只问一件事：你能长期稳定拿到的税后收益，比房贷利率高吗？高就别急着还，不高或说不准就还。等额本息前几年利息占得多，越早还省得越多。银行 App 的「提前还款试算」能直接算出数字。
收益: 算法是这样。先设房贷年利率为 r，按你的合同来。2026 年 8 月 20 日 5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.5%，实际执行的利率是在 LPR 上加点或者减点。再设 g 为你可选的另一种投资扣完税后的年化收益：这笔钱换个地方投，平均每年能赚到的比例。提前还款的确定收益率就是 r，每还掉一笔，就等于稳稳赚到了 r。如果 g 稳定大于 r，钱留在投资里更划算。如果 g 小于 r，或者 g 根本说不准，那提前还款就等于锁定一笔无风险的 r。等额本息前几年你还进去的钱里，利息占得多，所以越早还省下的利息越多。这一点用银行 App 的「提前还款试算」直接看数字（中国，2026 年利率）
证据等级: C
来源: 全国银行间同业拆借中心受中国人民银行授权 (2026). 2026 年 8 月 20 日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）公告. <https://www.chinamoney.com.cn/chinese/rdgz/20260820/3399885.html>
备注: 这里只给算法，不下结论。投资收益能稳定超过房贷利率的情况是少数。但不管你选哪一边，都要先留够应急现金。另外注意看合同里有没有提前还款违约金的条款。不构成投资建议。
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