06-001 · EVIDENCE A · SOURCE-SENSITIVE

Don’t take multivitamins for longevity or heart protection

不要为了长寿或防心血管病吃复合维生素

Source cost

They cost roughly 0.5 to 2 yuan per day, or 200 to 700 yuan per year. Taking them requires almost no time — just one pill a day. Over time, they can create a sense of dependency, making it feel like something is missing if you skip a day.

Source return

Over 14000 male doctors took multivitamins for eleven years. The number of serious heart and vascular problems, as well as deaths, was virtually identical between those who took them and those who didn’t. When nine separate clinical trials were pooled together, there was no measurable effect on mortality at all. Skipping them saves you between 200 and 700 yuan each year. This does not apply to people who have been medically diagnosed with specific nutrient deficiencies, nor to pregnant women needing folic acid.

Evidence grade

A

THE LOW-ROI DETOURSatire, not advice

Move “Don’t take multivitamins for longevity or heart protection” to Future Me's calendar

The excuse

Future Me has a clearer calendar, more patience, and apparently the same responsibilities.

What feels good now

Today I keep a few minutes and avoid interrupting my default routine.

What the source says

The source summarizes the return this way: “Over 14000 male doctors took multivitamins for eleven years. The number of serious heart and vascular problems, as well as deaths, was virtually identical between those who took them and those who didn’t. When nine separate clinical trials were pooled together, there was no measurable effect on mortality at all. Skipping them saves you between 200 and 700 yuan each year. This does not apply to people who have been medically diagnosed with specific nutrient deficiencies, nor to pregnant women needing folic acid.” Evidence grade A. The original states the population, caveats, and sources; this is not a personal forecast.

THE ENGLISH EDITION

Original recommendation and evidence

Source commit a994b6a0c905

1. Don’t take multivitamins for longevity or heart protection

Cost: They cost roughly 0.5 to 2 yuan per day, or 200 to 700 yuan per year. Taking them requires almost no time — just one pill a day. Over time, they can create a sense of dependency, making it feel like something is missing if you skip a day.

In plain terms: Over 14000 male doctors took multivitamins for eleven years. The number of serious heart and vascular problems, as well as deaths, was virtually identical between those who took them and those who didn’t. When nine separate clinical trials were pooled together, there was no measurable effect on mortality at all. Skipping them saves you between 200 and 700 yuan each year. This does not apply to people who have been medically diagnosed with specific nutrient deficiencies, nor to pregnant women needing folic acid.

Benefit: The PHS II trial enrolled 14641 male doctors and followed them for a median period of 11.2 years (some longer, some shorter). The rate of major cardiovascular events was identical between the groups; the hazard ratio was 1.01 (95% CI 0.91–1.10), meaning no real difference. Similarly, overall mortality showed no difference, with a hazard ratio of 0.94 (95% CI 0.88–1.02). The USPSTF evaluated nine randomized controlled trials with 51550 participants and concluded there is insufficient evidence to support any link between multivitamins and reduced mortality; it assigned a Grade I rating. The perception that they are worthwhile stems largely from the idea of “one pill covering all nutrients” and their extremely low cost.

Evidence grade: A

Sources: Sesso HD et al. (2012). Multivitamins in the prevention of cardiovascular disease in men: the Physicians' Health Study II randomized controlled trial. JAMA. JAMA. <https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2022.8970>; Gaziano JM et al. (2012). Multivitamins in the Prevention of Cancer in Men. JAMA. <https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2012.14641> (note the cancer results in the remarks)

Notes: A point of debate: among the same group of male doctors, cancer rates were examined as well. Those taking multivitamins showed an 8% lower incidence of cancer (95% CI 0.86–0.998, P=0.04), which just barely crosses the threshold for statistical significance. Cancer-related mortality was also 12% lower (95% CI 0.77–1.01), but this range includes 1, so it may well be a random fluctuation. Any such benefit appears very small and applies only to male doctors. It does not apply to individuals with diagnosed nutrient deficiencies, pregnant women, or those with highly unbalanced diets who require targeted supplementation as advised by medical professionals.

Read the complete Chinese source and notes

1. 不要为了长寿或防心血管病吃复合维生素

成本: 一天约 0.5 到 2 元,一年 200 到 700 元。吃它不费时间,一粒的事。吃久了容易产生依赖,觉得哪天没吃就像少做了点什么。

说人话: 1.4 万名男医生吃了十一年复合维生素。心脏和血管出大事的人、死掉的人,和不吃的一样多。把 9 项试验、5 万多人放一起看,对死亡也看不出影响。不买能省下一年两百到七百块。查出来确实缺某种营养的人、孕妇补叶酸,不在这条里面。

收益: PHS II 试验找了 14,641 名男医生,跟踪了 11.2 年(这是中位数,一半人比它长、一半人比它短)。吃的人和不吃的人,心脏血管出大事的比例一样。主要心血管事件 HR 1.01(HR 是风险比,1 就是两边一个样)。95% CI 0.91–1.10 是这个数的可信范围。死亡也一样,全因死亡 HR 0.94(0.88–1.02)。美国给预防措施打分的机构 USPSTF,2022 年把 9 项随机分组的对照试验、51,550 人合起来算,结果是多维片和总死亡没有关联。评级 I,意思是证据不够、说不清。它看起来划算,是因为「一片补齐所有营养」听着顺,而且一天只要几毛钱

证据等级: A

来源: Sesso HD et al. (2012). Multivitamins in the prevention of cardiovascular disease in men: the Physicians' Health Study II randomized controlled trial. JAMA. <https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2012.14805>;US Preventive Services Task Force (2022). Vitamin, Mineral, and Multivitamin Supplementation to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer. JAMA. <https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2022.8970>;Gaziano JM 等 (2012). Multivitamins in the Prevention of Cancer in Men. JAMA. <https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2012.14641>(备注里那项癌症结果)

备注: 争议:同一批男医生里还看过癌症。吃的人得癌症的比例低约 8%(0.86–0.998,P=0.04,勉强够上「不像碰巧」的线)。因为癌症死掉的比例低约 12%(0.77–1.01)。这个范围跨过了 1,所以可能只是偶然。这点好处很小,而且只在男医生身上看到过。查出来确实缺营养的人、孕妇(补叶酸)、平时吃得实在很偏的人,不算在内,按医生说的补

Author's scope notes: 争议:同一批男医生里还看过癌症。吃的人得癌症的比例低约 8%(0.86–0.998,P=0.04,勉强够上「不像碰巧」的线)。因为癌症死掉的比例低约 12%(0.77–1.01)。这个范围跨过了 1,所以可能只是偶然。这点好处很小,而且只在男医生身上看到过。查出来确实缺营养的人、孕妇(补叶酸)、平时吃得实在很偏的人,不算在内,按医生说的补

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Original content by eternity4719 under CC BY 4.0. English translation is credited in the source notes. HowToLiveWorse adds a clearly labeled satirical response.

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