28-005 · EVIDENCE A · SOURCE-SENSITIVE

Do not use anabolic steroids (“muscle‑building injections” or “oral pills”) to build muscle

不要用合成代谢类固醇(「增肌针」「口服药」)来长肌肉

Source cost

There is no cost involved; you even save money on medication. The hard part is accepting that muscle growth will be slow.

Source return

A Danish study followed 545 men who tested positive for anabolic steroids and compared them with 5,450 age‑matched controls. Users had a three‑fold higher risk of death, and the median number of hospital visits per year was 0.81 versus 0.36 for controls. More than 10 % of steroid users developed acne, gynecomastia, or erectile dysfunction. In China these drugs are prescription‑only, and any source selling them illegally is breaking the law.

Evidence grade

A

THE LOW-ROI DETOURSatire, not advice

Move “Do not use anabolic steroids (“muscle‑building injections” or “oral pills”) to build muscle” to Future Me's calendar

The excuse

One more exception feels free because the bill arrives outside the current scene.

What feels good now

Today I keep a few minutes, a bit of persistence and avoid interrupting my default routine.

What the source says

The source summarizes the return this way: “A Danish study followed 545 men who tested positive for anabolic steroids and compared them with 5,450 age‑matched controls. Users had a three‑fold higher risk of death, and the median number of hospital visits per year was 0.81 versus 0.36 for controls. More than 10 % of steroid users developed acne, gynecomastia, or erectile dysfunction. In China these drugs are prescription‑only, and any source selling them illegally is breaking the law.” Evidence grade A. The original states the population, caveats, and sources; this is not a personal forecast.

THE ENGLISH EDITION

Original recommendation and evidence

Source commit a994b6a0c905

5. Do not use anabolic steroids (“muscle‑building injections” or “oral pills”) to build muscle

Cost: There is no cost involved; you even save money on medication. The hard part is accepting that muscle growth will be slow.

In plain terms: A Danish study followed 545 men who tested positive for anabolic steroids and compared them with 5,450 age‑matched controls. Users had a three‑fold higher risk of death, and the median number of hospital visits per year was 0.81 versus 0.36 for controls. More than 10 % of steroid users developed acne, gynecomastia, or erectile dysfunction. In China these drugs are prescription‑only, and any source selling them illegally is breaking the law.

Benefit: The Danish researchers matched each steroid user with a control of the same age. The original cohort comprised 545 men whose androgenic steroid tests were positive between 2006‑01‑03 and 2018‑03‑01; they were paired with 5,450 controls. An additional validation used 644 refusers and 6,440 controls. Results showed a three‑fold increase in mortality among users (HR = 3.0; 95 % CI 1.3–7.0). The median yearly number of hospital visits was 0.81 versus 0.36 (P < 0.0001). Median means that half of the users had more visits and half fewer; such a low P‑value indicates this difference is highly unlikely to be random. Acne, gynecomastia, and erectile dysfunction each affected over 10 % of users – at least one in ten – a rate far above that of controls (P < 0.0001). The validation cohort yielded the same findings. Article 7 of China’s Anti‑Doping Regulations states that all substances on the prohibited list are strictly controlled; no entity may produce, sell, import, or export them illegally. The same regulation designates anabolic agents and peptide hormones as prescription drugs, meaning they may be obtained only with a doctor’s prescription; “anabolic agents” is the official term used in legislation.

Evidence grade: A

Sources: Horwitz H et al. (2019). Health consequences of androgenic anabolic steroid use. J Intern Med. <https://doi.org/10.1111/joim.12850>; State Council of China (2004). Anti-Doping Regulations (State Council of China Order No. 398, Article 7, Article 9). <http://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2004/content_63129.htm>

Notes: This is an observational study, not a randomized trial; steroid users may also engage in other risky behaviors, so the three‑fold risk increase may not be attributable solely to the drugs. The true effect size likely falls between 1.3 and 7.0. However, visible side effects such as acne, gynecomastia, and erectile dysfunction are less prone to bias. Legally these products are termed “anabolic agents”; any product described with that phrase contains them. Ordinary protein powder or creatine does not fall under this category. A problem is that some products marketed as “muscle‑building powders” or “nutritional supplements” may contain hidden steroids while claiming rapid results. The screening method is the same as for weight‑loss products (see item 4: avoid any weight‑loss drug promising quick results). Legitimate drugs are prescription‑only and carry verifiable approval numbers; any product sold as a “muscle‑building supplement” that promises results within weeks is probably adulterated.

Read the complete Chinese source and notes

5. 不要用合成代谢类固醇(「增肌针」「口服药」)来长肌肉

成本: 不花钱,还省下药钱。难的是要接受肌肉长得慢。

说人话: 健身房兴奋剂检测阳性的男性,死亡风险是同龄人的 3 倍,每年跑医院的次数多一倍多。痤疮、男性乳房发育、勃起功能障碍,每十个用药的人里至少一个中招。这类药在中国是处方药,能卖给你的渠道本身就在违法。

收益: 丹麦回头翻档案,给每个用药的人配同龄对照。用药的是 2006-01-03 至 2018-03-01 健身房兴奋剂检测雄激素类固醇阳性的 545 名男性,配了 5,450 名对照。另外又用 644 名拒绝受检者和 6,440 名对照复核了一遍。结果:使用者死亡率为对照的 3 倍,HR 3.0(95% CI 1.3–7.0),真实倍数大致在 1.3 到 7 之间。每年住院或就诊次数的中位数是 0.81 次 vs 0.36 次(P<0.0001)。中位数就是一半人多于、一半人少于这个数。这个 P 值说明这个差别几乎不可能是碰巧。痤疮(长痘)、男性乳房发育、勃起功能障碍各影响超过 10% 的使用者,即每十个用药的人里至少一个中招,都明显高于对照(P<0.0001)。复核的那一批结果一致。《反兴奋剂条例》第七条:国家对兴奋剂目录所列禁用物质实行严格管理,任何单位和个人不得非法生产、销售、进出口。同一条例规定蛋白同化制剂、肽类激素实行处方药管理,即只能凭医生处方买,蛋白同化制剂是法规里对这类药的叫法

证据等级: A

来源: Horwitz H et al. (2019). Health consequences of androgenic anabolic steroid use. J Intern Med. <https://doi.org/10.1111/joim.12850>;国务院 (2004). 反兴奋剂条例(国务院令第 398 号,第七条、第九条). <http://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2004/content_63129.htm>

备注: 争议:这是跟踪一群人看结果的研究,不是随机分组试验。用药的人本身可能在别的方面也更冒险,3 倍这个数不能全记到药头上。真实倍数可能低到 1.3,也可能高到 7.0,范围很宽。但「痤疮、男性乳房发育、勃起功能障碍各有一成以上的人中招」是眼睛能看见的副作用,受这种偏差影响较小。这类药在法规里写作「蛋白同化制剂」,看到这四个字说的就是它。普通蛋白粉、肌酸不在本条之内。麻烦的是「宣称增肌特别快」的产品可能偷加成分。判断方法和减肥产品那条一样(第 4 条,不买承诺快速瘦的减肥药):正经药是处方药、有批准文号可查。靠「增肌粉」「营养品」名义卖、又承诺几周见效的,真有效就是加了东西。

Author's scope notes: 争议:这是跟踪一群人看结果的研究,不是随机分组试验。用药的人本身可能在别的方面也更冒险,3 倍这个数不能全记到药头上。真实倍数可能低到 1.3,也可能高到 7.0,范围很宽。但「痤疮、男性乳房发育、勃起功能障碍各有一成以上的人中招」是眼睛能看见的副作用,受这种偏差影响较小。这类药在法规里写作「蛋白同化制剂」,看到这四个字说的就是它。普通蛋白粉、肌酸不在本条之内。麻烦的是「宣称增肌特别快」的产品可能偷加成分。判断方法和减肥产品那条一样(第 4 条,不买承诺快速瘦的减肥药):正经药是处方药、有批准文号可查。靠「增肌粉」「营养品」名义卖、又承诺几周见效的,真有效就是加了东西。

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Original content by eternity4719 under CC BY 4.0. English translation is credited in the source notes. HowToLiveWorse adds a clearly labeled satirical response.

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