28-007 · EVIDENCE A · SOURCE-SENSITIVE
Sex hormone therapy should only be used when prescribed by a doctor and with regular follow‑up; do not buy it online and do not adjust the dose on your own.
性激素类药只在医生开方并定期复查的前提下用,不要网购、不要自己加量
Regular doctor visits and blood tests are required. Over a year this can cost several hundred dollars and take up several half‑days of your time.
This section does not discuss whether hormone therapy is appropriate, only how to use it safely. A study followed transgender individuals for about four years. Transgender women taking estrogen had a noticeably higher rate of venous thrombosis than age‑matched controls — 4.1 extra cases per 1,000 people in two years and 16.7 extra cases per 1,000 in eight years. Such risks must be monitored through long‑term follow‑up, and that monitoring only happens when a clinician checks you regularly. When people buy hormones online and adjust doses themselves, there is no one to provide that oversight.
A
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What the source says
The source summarizes the return this way: “This section does not discuss whether hormone therapy is appropriate, only how to use it safely. A study followed transgender individuals for about four years. Transgender women taking estrogen had a noticeably higher rate of venous thrombosis than age‑matched controls — 4.1 extra cases per 1,000 people in two years and 16.7 extra cases per 1,000 in eight years. Such risks must be monitored through long‑term follow‑up, and that monitoring only happens when a clinician checks you regularly. When people buy hormones online and adjust doses themselves, there is no one to provide that oversight.” Evidence grade A. The original states the population, caveats, and sources; this is not a personal forecast.
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THE ENGLISH EDITION
Original recommendation and evidence
7. Sex hormone therapy should only be used when prescribed by a doctor and with regular follow‑up; do not buy it online and do not adjust the dose on your own.
Cost: Regular doctor visits and blood tests are required. Over a year this can cost several hundred dollars and take up several half‑days of your time.
In plain terms: This section does not discuss whether hormone therapy is appropriate, only how to use it safely. A study followed transgender individuals for about four years. Transgender women taking estrogen had a noticeably higher rate of venous thrombosis than age‑matched controls — 4.1 extra cases per 1,000 people in two years and 16.7 extra cases per 1,000 in eight years. Such risks must be monitored through long‑term follow‑up, and that monitoring only happens when a clinician checks you regularly. When people buy hormones online and adjust doses themselves, there is no one to provide that oversight.
Benefit: Researchers examined electronic medical records from Kaiser Permanente, a large health‑care system. They identified 2,842 transgender women and 2,118 transgender men, with average follow‑up periods of 4.0 and 3.6 years respectively. Each participant was matched to roughly ten cisgender controls based on birth year, race, clinic location, and enrollment date — resulting in 48,686 cisgender men and 48,775 cisgender women. Compared with cisgender women, transgender women showed more venous thromboembolism: 4.1 extra cases per 1,000 people after two years (95% CI 1.6–6.7) and 16.7 extra cases after eight years (6.4–27.5). Compared with cisgender men, the numbers were 3.4 (1.1–5.6) and 13.7 (4.1–22.7) respectively. Rates of ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction were similar across groups. The differences were more pronounced among transgender women who started hormone therapy during the study period. Evidence for transgender men was insufficient to draw conclusions. The authors concluded that “these results may indicate a need for ongoing vigilance regarding the vascular side effects of estrogen in transgender hormone therapy.”
Evidence grade: A
Sources: Getahun D et al. (2018). Cross-sex Hormones and Acute Cardiovascular Events in Transgender Persons: A Cohort Study. Ann Intern Med. <https://doi.org/10.7326/M17-2785>; State Administration for Market Regulation of China (2022). Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Drug Online Sales (General Administration Order No. 58, Article 9). <https://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2022/content_5717002.htm>
Notes: The researchers acknowledged a limitation: they could not determine how many participants obtained hormones outside the health‑care system, so the data on actual medication use are incomplete. This limitation actually underscores why regular medical follow‑up is essential. The study only examined vascular events; it does not address whether hormone therapy should be used or what its overall benefits are — those questions require different evidence. The same principle applies to any use of sex hormones, including birth‑control pills, menopausal hormone therapy, and testosterone replacement. Anyone who buys hormones online, adjusts doses based on internet advice, and never monitors blood clots or liver/kidney function is at risk primarily because there is no medical oversight. In China, the proper route is to consult an endocrinology department or relevant specialist at a licensed medical institution for evaluation, prescription, and follow‑up. 〔17〕
Read the complete Chinese source and notes
7. 性激素类药只在医生开方并定期复查的前提下用,不要网购、不要自己加量
成本: 定期挂号,加上抽血复查。一年几百元,占掉几个半天。
说人话: 这条不讨论该不该用,只讨论怎么用。用雌激素的跨性别女性,血管里长血块的比同龄人明显多,每一千人两年多出约 4 个,八年多出约 17 个。这类风险得靠定期复查盯着,网购药、自己调量就没人替你查。
收益: 研究者从 Kaiser Permanente 这家医疗集团的电子病历里跟踪了一批人。其中 2,842 名跨性别女性、2,118 名跨性别男性。平均跟踪 4.0 年与 3.6 年。每个人都按出生年、种族、就诊点和入组时间配了约 10 倍的顺性别对照,一共 48,686 名顺性别男性与 48,775 名顺性别女性。跨性别女性的静脉血栓栓塞(血管里长血块堵住)比对照多。和顺性别男性比,2 年是每 1000 人 4.1 例(95% CI 1.6–6.7)。8 年是 16.7 例(6.4–27.5)。算下来,1000 个人里两年多出 4.1 例,八年多出 16.7 例。和顺性别女性比,这两个数是 3.4(1.1–5.6)与 13.7(4.1–22.7)。缺血性卒中(血管堵住那一类中风)与心肌梗死总体各组接近。但在跟踪期内才开始激素治疗的跨性别女性中,静脉血栓与缺血性卒中的差异更明显。跨性别男性的证据不够,下不了结论。作者结论为「这些结果可能提示需要长期警惕跨性别激素中雌激素的血管副作用」
证据等级: A
来源: Getahun D et al. (2018). Cross-sex Hormones and Acute Cardiovascular Events in Transgender Persons: A Cohort Study. Ann Intern Med. <https://doi.org/10.7326/M17-2785>;国家市场监督管理总局 (2022). 药品网络销售监督管理办法(总局令第 58 号,第九条). <https://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2022/content_5717002.htm>
备注: 研究者自己写明了这项研究的短处:有多少人是在医院系统外自己买的药,他们查不到,所以「有没有用药」这条线本来就划不干净。所以用药更该放进正规随访里。这项研究看的只是血管出没出事,不回答激素治疗该不该用、用了有什么好处,那是另一套证据。所有用到性激素的场合都一样,包括避孕药、更年期激素治疗、睾酮补充。凡是自己网购、照着网帖调量、从不查血栓和肝肾指标的,风险都出在「没人盯着」这一段,和为什么用药无关。国内的正规路子是去正规医疗机构的内分泌科或者相应专科,做评估、开方、复查。
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