01-016 · EVIDENCE A · SOURCE-SENSITIVE

The earlier women get the HPV vaccine, the better

女性接种 HPV 疫苗,越早越好

Source cost

Domestic bivalent vaccines cost around 300 RMB per dose, while imported 9‑valent vaccines cost about 1300 RMB per dose. A total of 2–3 doses are needed, and each visit takes half a day.

Source return

Data from 1.67 million Swedish women show that those who received the HPV vaccine before age 17 have only about one‑eighth the risk of developing invasive cervical cancer compared to unvaccinated women. For women vaccinated between 17 and 30, the risk is roughly half that of non‑vaccinated peers. Therefore, getting vaccinated earlier offers the greatest benefit.

Evidence grade

A

THE LOW-ROI DETOURSatire, not advice

Move “The earlier women get the HPV vaccine, the better” to Future Me's calendar

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What the source says

The source summarizes the return this way: “Data from 1.67 million Swedish women show that those who received the HPV vaccine before age 17 have only about one‑eighth the risk of developing invasive cervical cancer compared to unvaccinated women. For women vaccinated between 17 and 30, the risk is roughly half that of non‑vaccinated peers. Therefore, getting vaccinated earlier offers the greatest benefit.” Evidence grade A. The original states the population, caveats, and sources; this is not a personal forecast.

THE ENGLISH EDITION

Original recommendation and evidence

Source commit a994b6a0c905

16. The earlier women get the HPV vaccine, the better

Cost: Domestic bivalent vaccines cost around 300 RMB per dose, while imported 9‑valent vaccines cost about 1300 RMB per dose. A total of 2–3 doses are needed, and each visit takes half a day.

In plain terms: Data from 1.67 million Swedish women show that those who received the HPV vaccine before age 17 have only about one‑eighth the risk of developing invasive cervical cancer compared to unvaccinated women. For women vaccinated between 17 and 30, the risk is roughly half that of non‑vaccinated peers. Therefore, getting vaccinated earlier offers the greatest benefit.

Benefit: Swedish research on 1.67 million women found that vaccinated individuals have a much lower incidence of invasive cervical cancer. Before age 17, vaccination reduces risk by roughly 88% (IRR 0.12, 95% CI 0.00–0.34). Vaccination between 17 and 30 still lowers risk by about 53% (IRR 0.47, 95% CI 0.27–0.75).

Evidence grade: A

Sources: Lei J et al. (2020). HPV Vaccination and the Risk of Invasive Cervical Cancer. New England Journal of Medicine. <https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1917338>

Notes: The greatest benefit is seen when vaccination occurs between ages 9 and 14. Even for women aged 17–30, risk is still reduced by more than half. After age 30, the protective effect gradually diminishes. Vaccinated women still need regular cervical cancer screening; the vaccine does not replace screening — see item 18 for screening guidelines for women over 30.

Read the complete Chinese source and notes

16. 女性接种 HPV 疫苗,越早越好

成本: 国产二价约 300 多元一针,进口九价约 1300 元一针。一共打 2 到 3 针。每次跑一趟,半天。

说人话: 瑞典 167 万女性的数据里,17 岁以前打过 HPV 疫苗的人,后来得浸润性宫颈癌的概率只有没打的约八分之一。17 到 30 岁才打的,也只有一半左右。所以越早打越值。

收益: 瑞典跟踪了 167 万名女性做统计:打过疫苗的人,浸润性宫颈癌的发病率比没打的低。17 岁以前接种的低约 88%(IRR 0.12,95% CI 0.00 到 0.34,括号里是原值和它的可信范围)。17 到 30 岁接种的低约 53%(IRR 0.47,95% CI 0.27 到 0.75)

证据等级: A

来源: Lei J 等 (2020). HPV Vaccination and the Risk of Invasive Cervical Cancer. New England Journal of Medicine. <https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1917338>

备注: 9 到 14 岁打收益最大。17 到 30 岁打,还有一半以上的下降。30 岁以后打,收益就一路变小。打过疫苗也还是要做宫颈癌筛查,疫苗替代不了筛查,见第 18 条(30 岁以上女性做宫颈癌筛查)。

Author's scope notes: 9 到 14 岁打收益最大。17 到 30 岁打,还有一半以上的下降。30 岁以后打,收益就一路变小。打过疫苗也还是要做宫颈癌筛查,疫苗替代不了筛查,见第 18 条(30 岁以上女性做宫颈癌筛查)。

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Original content by eternity4719 under CC BY 4.0. English translation is credited in the source notes. HowToLiveWorse adds a clearly labeled satirical response.

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