01-019 · EVIDENCE A · SOURCE-SENSITIVE

Starting colorectal cancer screening at ages 45–50: use fecal immunochemical tests or colonoscopies

45 到 50 岁起做结直肠癌筛查,做查大便隐血的粪便免疫化学检测或者肠镜

Source cost

Fecal tests cost just a few dozen yuan and can be done every 1–2 years. Colonoscopies cost several hundred to over a thousand yuan; those with negative results only need one every 10 years. Preparing for a colonoscopy requires setting aside a full day for bowel cleansing.

Source return

Getting a low-cost fecal occult blood test every year or two lowers the chance of dying from colorectal cancer by roughly 16%. For people who’ve had at least one round of screening, this risk drops by about 25%. In the group invited to undergo a colonoscopy, the likelihood of developing colorectal cancer over the next decade fell from 1.20% to 0.98%.

Evidence grade

A

THE LOW-ROI DETOURSatire, not advice

Move “Starting colorectal cancer screening at ages 45–50: use fecal immunochemical tests or colonoscopies” to Future Me's calendar

The excuse

The routine already works until the day the source says it may not.

What feels good now

Today I keep a little money, a few minutes and avoid interrupting my default routine.

What the source says

The source summarizes the return this way: “Getting a low-cost fecal occult blood test every year or two lowers the chance of dying from colorectal cancer by roughly 16%. For people who’ve had at least one round of screening, this risk drops by about 25%. In the group invited to undergo a colonoscopy, the likelihood of developing colorectal cancer over the next decade fell from 1.20% to 0.98%.” Evidence grade A. The original states the population, caveats, and sources; this is not a personal forecast.

THE ENGLISH EDITION

Original recommendation and evidence

Source commit a994b6a0c905

19. Starting colorectal cancer screening at ages 45–50: use fecal immunochemical tests or colonoscopies

Cost: Fecal tests cost just a few dozen yuan and can be done every 1–2 years. Colonoscopies cost several hundred to over a thousand yuan; those with negative results only need one every 10 years. Preparing for a colonoscopy requires setting aside a full day for bowel cleansing.

In plain terms: Getting a low-cost fecal occult blood test every year or two lowers the chance of dying from colorectal cancer by roughly 16%. For people who’ve had at least one round of screening, this risk drops by about 25%. In the group invited to undergo a colonoscopy, the likelihood of developing colorectal cancer over the next decade fell from 1.20% to 0.98%.

Benefit: Cochrane pooled data from multiple studies showing that individuals undergoing fecal occult blood screening have a roughly 16% lower risk of dying from colorectal cancer. The original RR was 0.84, with a 95% CI ranging from 0.78 to 0.90. For those who’ve had at least one screening round, this risk reduction reaches 25% (RR 0.75). The NordICC randomized trial likewise found that among participants invited to get a colonoscopy, colorectal cancer incidence dropped from 1.20% to 0.98% over 10 years; its RR was 0.82, with a 95% CI of 0.70–0.93.

Evidence grade: A

Sources: Hewitson P et al. (2007). Screening for colorectal cancer using the faecal occult blood test, Hemoccult. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. <https://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD001216.pub2>; Bretthauer M et al. (2022). Effect of Colonoscopy Screening on Risks of Colorectal Cancer and Related Death. New England Journal of Medicine. <https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2208375>

Notes: This topic remains debated. The NordICC trial tracked participants based on whether they were invited to get a colonoscopy; the difference in colorectal cancer mortality between groups was 0.28% versus 0.31% (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.64–1.16), a gap well within statistical margins of error. This suggests earlier estimates of colonoscopy’s mortality benefits may have been overstated, while evidence for fecal tests’ impact on mortality is more robust. Most national guidelines recommend starting screening at ages 45–50; those with a family history of colorectal cancer should begin even earlier.

Read the complete Chinese source and notes

19. 45 到 50 岁起做结直肠癌筛查,做查大便隐血的粪便免疫化学检测或者肠镜

成本: 粪便检测几十元,每 1 到 2 年做一次。肠镜几百到一千多元,结果阴性的 10 年做一次就行。做肠镜前要留出一天清肠。

说人话: 每一两年做一次几十块的粪便隐血检查,死于结直肠癌的概率低约 16%,至少查过一轮的人低 25%。被叫去做一次肠镜的人,往后十年得结直肠癌的概率从 1.20% 降到 0.98%。

收益: Cochrane 把多项研究合起来一起算。做粪便隐血筛查的人,死于结直肠癌的风险低约 16%。原值 RR 0.84,可信范围 95% CI 0.78 到 0.90。至少参加过一轮的人低约 25%(RR 0.75)。再看 NordICC 那项随机试验。被邀请去做肠镜的人,10 年里结直肠癌的发病从 1.20% 降到 0.98%。原值 RR 0.82,可信范围 95% CI 0.70 到 0.93

证据等级: A

来源: Hewitson P 等 (2007). Screening for colorectal cancer using the faecal occult blood test, Hemoccult. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. <https://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD001216.pub2> ; Bretthauer M 等 (2022). Effect of Colonoscopy Screening on Risks of Colorectal Cancer and Related Death. New England Journal of Medicine. <https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2208375>

备注: 争议。NordICC 是按「被邀请去做肠镜」的人来算的,结直肠癌死亡 0.28% 对 0.31%(RR 0.90,95% CI 0.64 到 1.16),差别还在误差范围内。这说明肠镜对死亡率的好处以前被高估过。粪便检测在死亡率上的证据反而更硬。从几岁开始查,各国指南在 45 到 50 岁之间。家里有人得过这个病的要更早开始。

Author's scope notes: 争议。NordICC 是按「被邀请去做肠镜」的人来算的,结直肠癌死亡 0.28% 对 0.31%(RR 0.90,95% CI 0.64 到 1.16),差别还在误差范围内。这说明肠镜对死亡率的好处以前被高估过。粪便检测在死亡率上的证据反而更硬。从几岁开始查,各国指南在 45 到 50 岁之间。家里有人得过这个病的要更早开始。

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Original content by eternity4719 under CC BY 4.0. English translation is credited in the source notes. HowToLiveWorse adds a clearly labeled satirical response.

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