01-020 · EVIDENCE A · SOURCE-SENSITIVE

People with cardiovascular disease and older adults should get a flu shot each year

有心血管病的人和老年人每年打流感疫苗

Source cost

One shot costs 50 to 150 yuan. It should be given once each autumn.

Source return

In a trial involving people after a heart attack, the yearly death rate dropped from 4.9% to 2.9% after they received the flu vaccine. For people with cardiovascular disease and older adults, getting one shot each autumn for just 50 to 150 yuan can make a real difference.

Evidence grade

A

THE LOW-ROI DETOURSatire, not advice

Move “People with cardiovascular disease and older adults should get a flu shot each year” to Future Me's calendar

The excuse

There is no immediate alarm, so the sensible choice can wait for a less busy week.

What feels good now

Today I keep a little money, a few minutes and avoid interrupting my default routine.

What the source says

The source summarizes the return this way: “In a trial involving people after a heart attack, the yearly death rate dropped from 4.9% to 2.9% after they received the flu vaccine. For people with cardiovascular disease and older adults, getting one shot each autumn for just 50 to 150 yuan can make a real difference.” Evidence grade A. The original states the population, caveats, and sources; this is not a personal forecast.

THE ENGLISH EDITION

Original recommendation and evidence

Source commit a994b6a0c905

20. People with cardiovascular disease and older adults should get a flu shot each year

Cost: One shot costs 50 to 150 yuan. It should be given once each autumn.

In plain terms: In a trial involving people after a heart attack, the yearly death rate dropped from 4.9% to 2.9% after they received the flu vaccine. For people with cardiovascular disease and older adults, getting one shot each autumn for just 50 to 150 yuan can make a real difference.

Benefit: This trial included 2,571 participants after a myocardial infarction; neither doctors nor patients knew who got the vaccine or the placebo. Over 12 months, the overall death rate was 2.9% in the vaccine group versus 4.9% in the placebo group. The hazard ratio was 0.59, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.39 to 0.89. Cardiovascular death rates also showed a hazard ratio of 0.59. Another study pooled multiple trials and found that flu vaccination lowered the rate of major cardiovascular events to 3.6% from 5.4% in the control group; the relative risk was 0.66, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.53 to 0.83. Cardiovascular death risk showed a relative risk of 0.74, though this fell within the margin of error and was not statistically significant (95% CI 0.42 to 1.30).

Evidence grade: A

Sources: Fröbert O et al. (2021). Influenza Vaccination After Myocardial Infarction: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Multicenter Trial. Circulation. <https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.121.057042>; Behrouzi B et al. (2022). Association of Influenza Vaccination With Cardiovascular Risk: A Meta-analysis. JAMA Network Open. <https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.8873>; Demicheli V et al. (2018). Vaccines for preventing influenza in the elderly. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. <https://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD004876.pub4> ( Cochrane )

Notes: This recommendation is somewhat controversial. The Grade A rating applies only to people with cardiovascular disease. For otherwise healthy older adults, a Cochrane review offers only limited evidence. Flu vaccination also lowered the seasonal flu infection rate from 6% to 2.4%. The review rated the evidence for infection outcomes as “low” quality and the evidence for mortality as “very low” quality. This review was published in 2018 by Demicheli V et al.

Read the complete Chinese source and notes

20. 有心血管病的人和老年人每年打流感疫苗

成本: 一针 50 到 150 元。每年秋天打一次。

说人话: 心梗之后打流感疫苗的那项试验里,一年内死亡的比例从 4.9% 降到 2.9%。有心血管病的人和老人,每年秋天补一针,50 到 150 元。

收益: 一项试验在心肌梗死之后做,2571 人随机分组。医生和病人都不知道打的是哪一针。打流感疫苗的人,12 个月里的总死亡率是 2.9%。打安慰剂的是 4.9%。原值 HR 0.59,可信范围 95% CI 0.39 到 0.89。安慰剂就是不含有效成分的对照针。心血管死亡的 HR 是 0.59。另一项研究把多项研究合起来一起算。打流感疫苗的人主要心血管事件为 3.6%,对照为 5.4%。原值 RR 0.66,可信范围 95% CI 0.53 到 0.83。心血管死亡 RR 0.74(95% CI 0.42 到 1.30,这点差别还在误差范围内,算不上有统计学意义)

证据等级: A

来源: Fröbert O 等 (2021). Influenza Vaccination After Myocardial Infarction: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Multicenter Trial. Circulation. <https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.121.057042> ; Behrouzi B 等 (2022). Association of Influenza Vaccination With Cardiovascular Risk: A Meta-analysis. JAMA Network Open. <https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.8873>;Demicheli V 等 (2018). Vaccines for preventing influenza in the elderly. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. <https://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD004876.pub4>(备注里说的那份 Cochrane 汇总)

备注: 争议。A 级只对应有心血管病的人。对本来健康的老年人,Cochrane 综述只给出一个结论:一季流感的发病从 6% 降到 2.4%。它把这条证据的可信度评为「低」,死亡率方面的证据评为「极低」。综述出处是 Demicheli V 等 2018 年那篇。

Author's scope notes: 争议。A 级只对应有心血管病的人。对本来健康的老年人,Cochrane 综述只给出一个结论:一季流感的发病从 6% 降到 2.4%。它把这条证据的可信度评为「低」,死亡率方面的证据评为「极低」。综述出处是 Demicheli V 等 2018 年那篇。

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Original content by eternity4719 under CC BY 4.0. English translation is credited in the source notes. HowToLiveWorse adds a clearly labeled satirical response.

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