01-039 · EVIDENCE A · SOURCE-SENSITIVE

Women aged 65 and older should have a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) bone density test; postmenopausal women with osteoporosis risk factors need not wait until 65

65 岁以上的女性去做一次双能 X 线骨密度检查,绝经后有骨质疏松危险因素的不用等到 65 岁

Source cost

A hospital DXA scan of the lumbar spine and hip takes a few minutes lying down. Out-of-pocket cost is usually 100–200 yuan, varying by region. Heel ultrasound at a checkup can screen but cannot diagnose.

Source return

Women aged 65 and older, and postmenopausal women with osteoporosis risk factors, should have bone density measured once. When screening starts with fracture-risk assessment and treats those at high risk, hip fractures fall by about 17%. That works out to about 5 fewer hip fractures per 1,000 people screened. Overall mortality did not change.

Evidence grade

A

THE LOW-ROI DETOURSatire, not advice

Move “Women aged 65 and older should have a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) bone density test; postmenopausal women with osteoporosis risk factors need not wait until 65” to Future Me's calendar

The excuse

Future Me has a clearer calendar, more patience, and apparently the same responsibilities.

What feels good now

Today I keep a little money, a few minutes and avoid interrupting my default routine.

What the source says

The source summarizes the return this way: “Women aged 65 and older, and postmenopausal women with osteoporosis risk factors, should have bone density measured once. When screening starts with fracture-risk assessment and treats those at high risk, hip fractures fall by about 17%. That works out to about 5 fewer hip fractures per 1,000 people screened. Overall mortality did not change.” Evidence grade A. The original states the population, caveats, and sources; this is not a personal forecast.

THE ENGLISH EDITION

Original recommendation and evidence

Source commit a994b6a0c905

39. Women aged 65 and older should have a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) bone density test; postmenopausal women with osteoporosis risk factors need not wait until 65

Cost: A hospital DXA scan of the lumbar spine and hip takes a few minutes lying down. Out-of-pocket cost is usually 100–200 yuan, varying by region. Heel ultrasound at a checkup can screen but cannot diagnose.

In plain terms: Women aged 65 and older, and postmenopausal women with osteoporosis risk factors, should have bone density measured once. When screening starts with fracture-risk assessment and treats those at high risk, hip fractures fall by about 17%. That works out to about 5 fewer hip fractures per 1,000 people screened. Overall mortality did not change.

Benefit: The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force 2025 recommendation is osteoporosis screening for women aged 65 and older (Grade B). Postmenopausal women under 65 at high fracture risk by assessment should also be screened (Grade B). Evidence for men is insufficient; no recommendation. The evidence review for that guidance pooled 3 randomized trials with 42,009 older European women. Screening meant assessing fracture risk first, measuring bone density in those at high risk, and treating those found high risk. Hip fractures in the screening group were about 17% lower (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.93). In absolute terms, screening avoided 5 hip fractures per 1,000 people. In the UK SCOOP trial of 12,483 women aged 70 to 85, hip fractures in the screening group were about 28% lower (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.89); mortality did not differ. The Chinese Medical Association 2017 guideline recommends DXA for women aged 65 and older and men aged 70 and older, and earlier when osteoporosis risk factors are present. In a 2017–2018 national survey, osteoporosis prevalence among adults over 40 was 20.6% in women and 5.0% in men (China).

Evidence grade: A

Sources: US Preventive Services Task Force, Nicholson WK, Silverstein M, et al. (2025). Screening for Osteoporosis to Prevent Fractures: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement. JAMA. <https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2024.27154>; Kahwati LC, Kistler CE, Booth G, et al. (2025). Screening for Osteoporosis to Prevent Fractures: A Systematic Evidence Review for the US Preventive Services Task Force. JAMA. <https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2024.21653>; Shepstone L, Lenaghan E, Cooper C, et al. (2018). Screening in the community to reduce fractures in older women (SCOOP): a randomised controlled trial. The Lancet. <https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32640-5>; Chinese Society of Osteoporosis and Bone Mineral Research (2017). Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Primary Osteoporosis (2017). Chinese Journal of Osteoporosis and Bone Mineral Research, 10(5), 413-443 (Table 5: Clinical Indications for Bone Mineral Density Measurement). <https://html.rhhz.net/GUSS/html/cc825127-29a3-47c1-9a95-7a212fdcce55.htm>; Wang L, Yu W, Yin X, et al. (2021). Prevalence of Osteoporosis and Fracture in China: The China Osteoporosis Prevalence Study. JAMA Network Open. <https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.21106>

Notes: Controversy: SCOOP's prespecified primary outcome was all osteoporotic fractures; the screening group did not show a clear reduction (HR 0.94, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.03)—only hip fractures fell. All three trials used "assess risk, then measure bone density"; none compared bone density testing alone. The evidence review also estimated 11.8% to 24.1% overdiagnosis—people who would never have fractured from this cause in their lifetime. For men, the U.S. says evidence is insufficient; China's guideline sets age 70—follow your doctor. This item is about whether bone can survive a fall; avoiding falls themselves is item 13 (balance and leg strength)—do both. After osteoporosis is found, see item 40 (treat with medication). Primary beneficiaries are you and your parents.

Read the complete Chinese source and notes

39. 65 岁以上的女性去做一次双能 X 线骨密度检查,绝经后有骨质疏松危险因素的不用等到 65 岁

成本: 去医院做一次双能 X 线骨密度检查(简称 DXA),查腰椎和髋部,躺着几分钟就做完。自费一般一两百元,各地价格不同。体检里踩一脚的跟骨超声只能初筛,不能确诊。

说人话: 65 岁以上的女性,以及绝经后有骨质疏松危险因素的女性,该去查一次骨密度。先查风险、再给高风险的人用药,髋部骨折能少约 17%。折算下来,每 1000 个去查的人里,约少 5 人髋部骨折。总死亡率没有看出变化。

收益: 美国预防服务工作组 2025 年发的推荐是:65 岁及以上的女性做骨质疏松筛查(B 级推荐)。绝经后、不到 65 岁、但按风险评估骨折风险高的女性,也推荐筛查(B 级)。男性证据不足,没有表态。给这份推荐做的证据综述合并了 3 项随机试验、42009 名欧洲老年女性。筛查的做法是先评估骨折风险,风险高的再查骨密度,查出高风险就用药。筛查组髋部骨折低约 17%。原值 RR 0.83,可信范围 95% CI 0.73 到 0.93。折成绝对数,每 1000 人筛查少 5 例髋部骨折。其中英国 SCOOP 试验找了 12483 名 70 到 85 岁的女性,筛查组髋部骨折低约 28%(HR 0.72,95% CI 0.59 到 0.89),死亡率没有看出差别。中华医学会 2017 年版诊疗指南建议:女性 65 岁以上、男性 70 岁以上做骨密度检查。不到这个年龄、但有一个或多个骨质疏松危险因素的,也建议查。2017 到 2018 年的全国调查里,40 岁以上女性骨质疏松的患病率是 20.6%,男性是 5.0%(中国)

证据等级: A

来源: US Preventive Services Task Force, Nicholson WK, Silverstein M, et al. (2025). Screening for Osteoporosis to Prevent Fractures: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement. JAMA. <https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2024.27154> ; Kahwati LC, Kistler CE, Booth G, et al. (2025). Screening for Osteoporosis to Prevent Fractures: A Systematic Evidence Review for the US Preventive Services Task Force. JAMA. <https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2024.21653> ; Shepstone L, Lenaghan E, Cooper C, et al. (2018). Screening in the community to reduce fractures in older women (SCOOP): a randomised controlled trial. The Lancet. <https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32640-5> ; 中华医学会骨质疏松和骨矿盐疾病分会 (2017). 原发性骨质疏松症诊疗指南(2017). 中华骨质疏松和骨矿盐疾病杂志, 10(5), 413-443(表 5 骨密度测量的临床指征). <https://html.rhhz.net/GUSS/html/cc825127-29a3-47c1-9a95-7a212fdcce55.htm> ; Wang L, Yu W, Yin X, et al. (2021). Prevalence of Osteoporosis and Fracture in China: The China Osteoporosis Prevalence Study. JAMA Network Open. <https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.21106>

备注: 争议:SCOOP 事先定的主要结果是所有骨质疏松性骨折,筛查组并没有明显减少(HR 0.94,95% CI 0.85 到 1.03),少的只是髋部骨折。三项试验都是「先评估风险、再查骨密度」,没有一项单独比较只查骨密度。证据综述还估计,查出来的人里有 11.8% 到 24.1% 属于过度诊断,也就是这辈子本来不会因此骨折的人。男性要不要查,美国说证据不足,中国指南定在 70 岁以上,按医生的建议走。这条管的是骨头经不经得起摔,少摔一跤靠第 13 条(平衡和腿部力量),两条一起做。查出骨质疏松之后怎么办,见第 40 条(查出骨质疏松就用药)。受益人主要是你自己,也包括你的父母。

Author's scope notes: 争议:SCOOP 事先定的主要结果是所有骨质疏松性骨折,筛查组并没有明显减少(HR 0.94,95% CI 0.85 到 1.03),少的只是髋部骨折。三项试验都是「先评估风险、再查骨密度」,没有一项单独比较只查骨密度。证据综述还估计,查出来的人里有 11.8% 到 24.1% 属于过度诊断,也就是这辈子本来不会因此骨折的人。男性要不要查,美国说证据不足,中国指南定在 70 岁以上,按医生的建议走。这条管的是骨头经不经得起摔,少摔一跤靠第 13 条(平衡和腿部力量),两条一起做。查出骨质疏松之后怎么办,见第 40 条(查出骨质疏松就用药)。受益人主要是你自己,也包括你的父母。

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Original content by eternity4719 under CC BY 4.0. English translation is credited in the source notes. HowToLiveWorse adds a clearly labeled satirical response.

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