10-007 · EVIDENCE A · LOW-RISK READING
Check registration statistics before listening to elders: what do “marriage rate” and “divorce rate” actually mean?
先看登记数据再听长辈：结婚率、离婚率各是什么口径
None. It takes just a few minutes to read the section on marriage registration in the annual report from the Civil Affairs Bureau.
In 2024, 6.106 million couples got married nationwide, a 20.5% drop from the previous year. Meanwhile, 3.513 million divorces were finalized. The oft‑quoted claim that “more than half of marriages end in divorce” comes from dividing these two numbers, yielding roughly 57.5%. The exact figures are 351.3 divorces and 610.6 marriages for that year. However, the two groups of people are not the same, so this figure cannot be interpreted as “half of all marriages end in divorce.” The report also lists a marriage rate of 4.3‰ and a divorce rate of 2.5‰; both use the total population as the denominator, not just married individuals.
A
Move “Check registration statistics before listening to elders: what do “marriage rate” and “divorce rate” actually mean?” to Future Me's calendar
The excuse
The routine already works until the day the source says it may not.
What feels good now
Today I keep a few minutes and avoid interrupting my default routine.
What the source says
The source summarizes the return this way: “In 2024, 6.106 million couples got married nationwide, a 20.5% drop from the previous year. Meanwhile, 3.513 million divorces were finalized. The oft‑quoted claim that “more than half of marriages end in divorce” comes from dividing these two numbers, yielding roughly 57.5%. The exact figures are 351.3 divorces and 610.6 marriages for that year. However, the two groups of people are not the same, so this figure cannot be interpreted as “half of all marriages end in divorce.” The report also lists a marriage rate of 4.3‰ and a divorce rate of 2.5‰; both use the total population as the denominator, not just married individuals.” Evidence grade A. The original states the population, caveats, and sources; this is not a personal forecast.
Open the original entry, check who the evidence applies to, then pick one small step that fits.
THE ENGLISH EDITION
Original recommendation and evidence
7. Check registration statistics before listening to elders: what do “marriage rate” and “divorce rate” actually mean?
Cost: None. It takes just a few minutes to read the section on marriage registration in the annual report from the Civil Affairs Bureau.
In plain terms: In 2024, 6.106 million couples got married nationwide, a 20.5% drop from the previous year. Meanwhile, 3.513 million divorces were finalized. The oft‑quoted claim that “more than half of marriages end in divorce” comes from dividing these two numbers, yielding roughly 57.5%. The exact figures are 351.3 divorces and 610.6 marriages for that year. However, the two groups of people are not the same, so this figure cannot be interpreted as “half of all marriages end in divorce.” The report also lists a marriage rate of 4.3‰ and a divorce rate of 2.5‰; both use the total population as the denominator, not just married individuals.
Benefit: In 2024, 6.106 million marriages were legally registered, representing a 20.5% decrease from 2023; the corresponding marriage rate was 4.3‰. That same year, 3.513 million divorces were processed: 2.622 million through civil registration and 0.891 million via court rulings or mediation, giving a divorce rate of 2.5‰. The report defines the marriage (or divorce) rate as the number of marriages (or divorces) in a given year divided by the average annual population, multiplied by 1000‰. This is a “crude rate” that uses the whole population as its base.
Evidence grade: A
Sources: Ministry of Civil Affairs of China (2025). 2024 Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Civil Affairs (V (II) 1 Marriage Registration Service, Note 5), web version and PDF version. <https://www.mca.gov.cn/n1288/n1294/n1554/c1662004999980006190/content.html>, <https://www.mca.gov.cn/gdnps/n2445/n2451/n2458/n2681/c1662004999980006189/attr/400985.pdf>
Notes: The common online figure of “over 50% divorce rate” is obtained by dividing the number of divorces by the number of marriages for the same year (351.3 ÷ 610.6 ≈ 57.5%). This ratio is known as the “divorce‑to‑marriage ratio.” Because the two sets of individuals are not identical and the report does not list such a metric, it cannot be taken as “half of all marriages end in divorce.” To calculate the actual probability that a given marriage eventually ends in divorce, one would need longitudinal data tracking the same cohort of newlyweds — data not available in this report.
Read the complete Chinese source and notes
7. 先看登记数据再听长辈：结婚率、离婚率各是什么口径
成本: 不花钱。读一遍民政部年度公报里的婚姻登记那一段，几分钟。
说人话: 2024 年全国结婚登记 610.6 万对，比上一年少了两成，离婚 351.3 万对。网上说离婚率过半，是拿这两个数一除，约 57.5%。可离婚的和结婚的不是同一批人，不能读成一半婚姻会离。公报里的结婚率 4.3‰、离婚率 2.5‰，是除以全国人口算的。
收益: 2024 年全国依法办理结婚登记 610.6 万对，比上年下降 20.5%，结婚率 4.3‰。同年依法办理离婚手续 351.3 万对，其中民政部门登记离婚 262.2 万对，法院判决和调解离婚 89.1 万对，离婚率 2.5‰。公报注明，结（离）婚率 = 当年结（离）婚对数 / 当年平均总人口数 × 1000‰。这是「粗率」，分母是全体人口，不是已婚人口
证据等级: A
来源: 民政部 (2025). 2024 年民政事业发展统计公报（五（二）1 婚姻登记服务、注释 5），网页版与 PDF 版. <https://www.mca.gov.cn/n1288/n1294/n1554/c1662004999980006190/content.html>、<https://www.mca.gov.cn/gdnps/n2445/n2451/n2458/n2681/c1662004999980006189/attr/400985.pdf>
备注: 网上常见的「离婚率 50% 以上」，是拿当年离婚的对数除以当年结婚的对数，351.3 / 610.6 ≈ 57.5%。这叫「离结比」。相除的两个数不是同一批人，公报里也没有这个指标，所以不能读成「一半婚姻会离」。要算「一段婚姻最后离掉的概率」，得盯住同一批结婚的人一路统计下去，这种官方数据本节没找到
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