01-012 · EVIDENCE A · SOURCE-SENSITIVE

Keep young children in sight near water; wear life jackets when boating or swimming

儿童近水不离视线,划船、野泳穿救生衣

Source cost

Life jackets cost between 50 and 200 yuan. Additionally, parents must dedicate constant attention to watching their children.

Source return

Wearing a life jacket while in the water cuts the risk of drowning to roughly half compared to not wearing one. Drowning remains the leading cause of death among children aged 1–14 in China. The drowning mortality rate in rural areas is roughly twice that in cities.

Evidence grade

A

THE LOW-ROI DETOURSatire, not advice

Move “Keep young children in sight near water; wear life jackets when boating or swimming” to Future Me's calendar

The excuse

I can spend longer deciding whether to start than the small action would take.

What feels good now

Today I keep a little money, a few minutes and avoid interrupting my default routine.

What the source says

The source summarizes the return this way: “Wearing a life jacket while in the water cuts the risk of drowning to roughly half compared to not wearing one. Drowning remains the leading cause of death among children aged 1–14 in China. The drowning mortality rate in rural areas is roughly twice that in cities.” Evidence grade A. The original states the population, caveats, and sources; this is not a personal forecast.

THE ENGLISH EDITION

Original recommendation and evidence

Source commit a994b6a0c905

12. Keep young children in sight near water; wear life jackets when boating or swimming

Cost: Life jackets cost between 50 and 200 yuan. Additionally, parents must dedicate constant attention to watching their children.

In plain terms: Wearing a life jacket while in the water cuts the risk of drowning to roughly half compared to not wearing one. Drowning remains the leading cause of death among children aged 1–14 in China. The drowning mortality rate in rural areas is roughly twice that in cities.

Benefit: Research using U.S. Coast Guard data compared similar groups of people. For individuals who fell overboard while boating recreationally, wearing a life jacket lowered their drowning risk by about half. The unadjusted RR was 0.51, with a 95% CI of 0.35–0.74. In China, the drowning mortality rate among people under 20 fell from 6.60 per 100,000 in 2013 to 3.28 per 100,000 in 2021; rural rates remained roughly twice those in cities. Drowning continues to be the top cause of death for children aged 1–14. In 2021, drowning accounted for 31.1% of all injury-related deaths among those aged 0–19, while road traffic injuries accounted for 27.9%.

Evidence grade: A

Sources: Cummings P et al. (2011). Association between wearing a personal floatation device and death by drowning among recreational boaters. Injury Prevention. <https://doi.org/10.1136/ip.2010.028688>; Li Z et al. (2023). Unintentional Drowning Mortality Among Individuals Under Age 20 — China, 2013–2021. China CDC Weekly. <https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2023.198>; Zhou J et al. (2024). Injury Mortality of Children and Adolescents Aged 0–19 Years — China, 2010–2021. China CDC Weekly. <https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2024.057>

Notes: The Grade A rating applies only to the protective effect of life jackets. The practice of keeping children within sight is widely accepted but only qualifies for a Grade C rating due to lack of randomized trials; no such trials are expected in the future. In China, drowning deaths occur most often in rural areas during summer months, and among males aged 15–19.

Read the complete Chinese source and notes

12. 儿童近水不离视线,划船、野泳穿救生衣

成本: 救生衣 50 到 200 元。另外要搭上看着孩子的那份注意力。

说人话: 落水的时候穿着救生衣,淹死的概率大约只有不穿的一半。溺水至今是中国 1 到 14 岁孩子的头号死因。农村的溺水死亡率大约是城市的两倍。

收益: 用美国海岸警卫队的数据做的研究,把条件相近的人配成对来比。坐休闲船只落水的人,穿着救生衣的溺亡风险低约一半。原值是校正后 RR 0.51,可信范围 95% CI 0.35 到 0.74。中国 20 岁以下的溺水死亡率,从 2013 年的每 10 万人 6.60 人降到 2021 年的每 10 万人 3.28 人。农村约为城市的 2 倍。溺水仍然是 1 到 14 岁儿童的头号死因。2021 年 0 到 19 岁的伤害死亡里,溺水占 31.1%,道路交通占 27.9%

证据等级: A

来源: Cummings P 等 (2011). Association between wearing a personal floatation device and death by drowning among recreational boaters. Injury Prevention. <https://doi.org/10.1136/ip.2010.028688> ; Li Z 等 (2023). Unintentional Drowning Mortality Among Individuals Under Age 20 — China, 2013–2021. China CDC Weekly. <https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2023.198> ; Zhou J 等 (2024). Injury Mortality of Children and Adolescents Aged 0–19 Years — China, 2010–2021. China CDC Weekly. <https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2024.057>

备注: A 级只对应救生衣这一半。「不离视线」是大家的共识,单算只有 C 级,没有随机试验,以后也不会有。中国的溺水死亡集中在农村、夏季,以及 15 到 19 岁的男性。冬天上冰面玩,见第 41 条(野外冰面先量厚度)。

Author's scope notes: A 级只对应救生衣这一半。「不离视线」是大家的共识,单算只有 C 级,没有随机试验,以后也不会有。中国的溺水死亡集中在农村、夏季,以及 15 到 19 岁的男性。冬天上冰面玩,见第 41 条(野外冰面先量厚度)。

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Original content by eternity4719 under CC BY 4.0. English translation is credited in the source notes. HowToLiveWorse adds a clearly labeled satirical response.

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